The Nov. 3 ballot at a glance
Every contest on a Hillsborough County ballot: where each stands, who is paying, and where the coalitions split. You fill in the ballot; this site never does.
This is an example ballot.
Yours may have different races, depending on where you live in Hillsborough County. Statewide and countywide races are the same for everyone.
The example is ballot style 40300 (precinct 403).
When and how to vote
Fact- Early voting
- Mon., Oct. 19 to Sun., Nov. 1
- Election Day
- Tue., Nov. 3Polls open 7:00 AM to 7:00 PM
Early-voting hours by site and the mail-ballot request deadline aren’t in this research. Check them at votehillsborough.gov.
Where every contest stands
Margins are from public polls and averages as the analysis page reports them; several polls were paid for by groups with a stake in the result. Mark your own choice in each row. Nothing here is pre-filled.
- Democrat ahead
- Republican ahead
- Range of public polls since Sep 1
- Yes share
- 60% needed to pass
- No poll
Federal
- U.S. SenatorSpecial election
Creative Loafing’s pick: Angie Nixon why
- Nixon won the Democratic primary decisively despite being outspent 16 to 1 by the party's preferred candidate, and CL calls her easy to get behind.
- She was a single mother for 12 years and runs a Jacksonville bookstore and coffee shop. In six years in the Legislature she filed early-learning bills, fought cuts to public schools and limits on abortion, and was arrested protesting the gerrymandered congressional maps.
- Her agenda, as CL reports it: extend Affordable Care Act subsidies first, lower costs, shore up Social Security and protect families from medical bankruptcy, partly by raising taxes on the very wealthy.
- CL relays Nixon's case against Ashley Moody: Moody's role in the Hope Florida scandal, her stock trading, her vote for the "Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, and her refusal to debate.
The guide lists Nixon without a write-up; these reasons are from CL's Oct. 19 story on her Ybor City rally, which recommends her.
Ray Roa (with Dave Decker), In Ybor City, Angie Nixon and Bernie Sanders rally against ‘lying, cheating, scheming, thieving Ashley Moody’ (w/photos)
Moody +7 (RCP)Moody +7
17polls
- U.S. House, District 14Redrawn seat
Creative Loafing’s pick: Kathy Castor why
- Castor is one of the hardest-working members of Congress and has reliably brought federal money home to Tampa Bay projects over her 20 years.
- CL grants the case against her: a long tenure, and some Democrats cooled on her after she was among a handful who backed a House resolution denouncing socialism.
- The deciding factor is her opponent. Mike Beltran calls himself "MAGA Mike," and CL argues that loyalty to Trump makes him no check on the executive branch, whatever his reputation for breaking with Florida Republicans.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough and Pinellas congressional seats
Castor +8.7 (1 poll, July)Castor +8.7 (1 poll)
1poll
State executive
- Governor and Lt. Governor8 tickets on the ballot
Creative Loafing’s pick: David Jolly / Gwen Graham why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
Donalds +5.6 (RCP)Donalds +5.6
16polls
- Attorney General
Creative Loafing’s pick: José Javier Rodríguez why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
Uthmeier +3.2 (45-day avg)Uthmeier +3.2 avg
8polls
- Chief Financial Officer
Creative Loafing’s pick: Annette Taddeo why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
Ingoglia +0.8 (45-day avg)Ingoglia +0.8 avg
5polls
- Commissioner of Agriculture
Creative Loafing’s pick: Joey Mendoza Atkins why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
Simpson +11 (1 sponsored poll)Simpson +11 (1 poll)
1poll
State legislature
- State Senate, District 14Rematch
Creative Loafing’s pick: Brian Nathan why
- CL calls the Republican ad tying Nathan to the Party for Socialism and Liberation a desperate smear: it is built on a CL photo from a May Day workers' rally that the West Central Florida Labor Council helped organize.
- Nathan, who won the seat in a special election in March, stands with working people; CL sees that as a belief that honest work should pay for a dignified life, not as socialism.
- Against Josie Tomkow: in nearly eight years in the Legislature she voted for the 2023 limits on public-sector unions (SB 256), skipped the final vote on the 2024 bill blocking local heat-protection and wage rules (HB 433), and this year voted for a law making public-sector union recertification harder.
- More broadly, CL says Florida Republicans claim to be the workers' party while resisting minimum-wage increases, banning local living-wage rules for contractors and loosening child-labor protections.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Tampa Bay's Florida State Senators
No poll. Nathan won March by 409 votesNo poll. Nathan won March by 409 votes
0polls
- State House, District 64Open seat
Creative Loafing’s pick: Luis Salazar why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. Dems lead registrationNo poll. Dems lead registration
0polls
County
- County Commission, District 1
Creative Loafing’s pick: Harry Cohen why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. Cohen leads in moneyNo poll. Cohen leads in money
0polls
- County Commission, District 5Countywide, open seat
Creative Loafing’s pick: Neil Manimala why
- Manimala is the only commission candidate with a comprehensive plan to make it possible to live in Hillsborough without a car: better transit and less strain on the roads, which CL sees as the county's core growth, safety, cost and health problem.
- CL expects him to work with both parties and calls him a hard worker with fresh ideas.
- CL credits Stacy Hahn's eight years on the School Board and her primary win over incumbent Donna Cameron Cepeda, but argues Manimala is the one who can fix how the county gets around.
Valerie Smith, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums
No poll. Manimala leads in moneyNo poll. Manimala leads in money
0polls
- County Commission, District 7Countywide
Creative Loafing’s pick: Aileen Rodriguez why
- Against incumbent Joshua Wostal: he opposed the county's health care program for low-income residents and funding for local arts, refused to sign commendations for Tampa Pride and the Tampa Organization of Black Affairs' MLK breakfast, and builds no coalitions; even his popular vote against Rays stadium money drew only one ally.
- His PAC took a late $50,000 check from developer Homes by West Bay, its largest ever and over $62,000 in all from that developer; its next-largest donor is tied to the lawsuit that killed the All For Transportation tax.
- Rodriguez, a former director for U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, has long been active in the community and brings steady, practical ideas on transit and responsible growth. She also beat former Clerk of Court Cindy Stuart in the primary.
- With the commission possibly growing, CL wants a member who unifies rather than divides.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums
A. Rodriguez +3 (1 sponsored poll)A. Rodriguez +3 (1 poll)
1poll
- School Board, District 6Nonpartisan runoff
Creative Loafing’s pick: Karen Perez why
- The race is nonpartisan, but Ken Gay's largest donor is the Hillsborough County Republican Party, which gave him $5,000 in September and endorsed him. CL describes that party as anti-union and fixated on DEI, Muslims in classrooms and transgender students.
- CL says voters are tired of culture-war bait in school board races.
- Perez, a social worker and strong public school advocate, is the most qualified, and CL sees no reason not to re-elect her.
Colin Wolf, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Hillsborough County Commission, School Board and referendums
No poll. Perez 48% in primaryNo poll. Perez 48% in primary
0polls
Judicial
- Retain Carlos G. MuñizSupreme Court
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
- A retention vote asks whether a justice has done the job as it should be done, not whether you like his politics. Here, CL says, the answer turns on respect for settled precedent (stare decisis).
- In 2020, soon after joining the court with no prior judicial experience, Muñiz joined a majority that dropped Florida's test for overruling precedent, so that reliance and stability no longer count on their own.
- In April 2024 he joined the ruling that the state constitution's privacy clause never protected abortion, overturning 35 years of precedent and triggering the six-week ban. Nothing in the constitution had changed, only the court's membership.
- He also joined the 2020 rewrite of Florida's summary-judgment rule, which CL argues takes disputed cases away from juries. Justice Jorge Labarga, a Republican appointee, dissented both times.
- No Florida justice has ever lost a retention vote; CL argues a No is how this check is meant to work, whatever you think of abortion.
The guide lists No without a write-up; the reasons are from an op-ed CL published Oct. 13.
Creative Loafing op-ed (posted by Ray Roa), Op-ed: Vote 'No' on retaining Florida Supreme Court Justice Carlos Muñiz
No poll. No appellate judge ever removedNo poll. No appellate judge ever removed
0polls
- Retain Drew AtkinsonSecond District Court of Appeal
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. No appellate judge ever removedNo poll. No appellate judge ever removed
0polls
- Retain Morris SilbermanSecond District Court of Appeal
Creative Loafing’s pick: Yes why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. No appellate judge ever removedNo poll. No appellate judge ever removed
0polls
- Retain Daniel H. SleetSecond District Court of Appeal
Creative Loafing’s pick: Yes why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. No appellate judge ever removedNo poll. No appellate judge ever removed
0polls
- Retain Andrea Teves SmithSecond District Court of Appeal
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No poll. No appellate judge ever removedNo poll. No appellate judge ever removed
0polls
State amendments (60% needed)
- Amendment 1Budget Stabilization Fund
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
- It would let the state's rainy-day fund grow from 10% to 25% of general revenue; Florida TaxWatch says reaching that could take 22 years.
- The fund, created in 1992, is nearly full and hasn't been drawn on since 2008. Nothing needs fixing.
- CL doesn't want to give Tallahassee more control over tax money, and notes Gov. DeSantis is also urging a No.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments
42% yes (1 sponsored poll)42% yes
1poll
- Amendment 2Agricultural equipment tax exemption
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
- It's a property-tax break for farm equipment, costing local governments roughly $31 million a year.
- CL calls it a special-interest break that helps big agriculture most; small farms already pay less because every business's first $25,000 of equipment is exempt.
- Lawmakers should find better ways to help small family farms and farmworkers.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments
57% yes (1 sponsored poll)57% yes
1poll
- Amendment 3Homestead exemption to $250K
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
- State economists estimate local governments would lose about $11.8 billion a year by 2031–32. Even police and firefighter unions urge a No.
- It was rushed through a three-day special session, and a judge threw out the first ballot title and summary.
- The Florida Realtors lobby has put millions behind it. CL calls it a distraction from property insurance, the real cost problem, and a hypocritical power grab that would leave cities begging Tallahassee for money.
- CL notes that even some of the amendment's former champions now say they'll vote No.
Ray Roa, Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: Florida's Constitutional Amendments
42-63% yes, median 5042-63% yes
6polls
County referendums (majority)
- Referendum 1Elected school superintendent
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No public pollingNo public polling
0polls
- Referendum 29 single-member commission districts
Creative Loafing’s pick: No why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No public pollingNo public polling
0polls
- Referendum 3School half-cent sales tax renewal
Creative Loafing’s pick: Yes (renew the school sales tax) why
Creative Loafing listed this pick in its guide without a write-up.
Creative Loafing voting guide 2026: How to vote in Tampa Bay, and who we're voting for
No public pollingNo public polling
0polls
Biggest money flows
Money raised, cash on hand and projected outside spending are not the same thing; each figure keeps the label the money map gave it. Every bar uses the same dollar scale.
Side by side, by contest
Governor: money raised through Oct. 9
As of: through Oct. 9
Byron Donalds $146.2M, REP, campaign plus committee
David Jolly $21.4M, DEM, campaign plus committee
Donalds raised nearly seven times as much, including contributions from 17 billionaires. Both campaigns receive public matching funds: Jolly $2.58M, Donalds $1.04M.
Sources: Florida Division of Elections · dos.elections.myflorida.com · Tampa Bay Times, Oct. 16
Amendment 3: campaign committees, mid-October
As of: mid-October
Vote Yes on 3 $21.5M, Florida Realtors $19.5M plus NAR $2M
Vote No on 3 $0.87M, two committees combined
A gap of about 25 to 1. The No side leans on sheriffs, firefighters and local governments rather than money.
Sources: Florida Division of Elections · dos.elections.myflorida.com · WLRN, Sept. 29 · Jax Today, Oct. 16
U.S. House 14: money for Castor and against her
No single as-of date given; each figure's label and the source dates say when.
Kathy Castor $4.9M, DEM, raised through Oct. 14
GOP outside groups $14.8M, spent against her through Oct. 22
Mike Beltran $1.72M, REP, cash on hand as of Oct. 14
No Going Back PAC alone has spent $8.2M against Castor, and about $20.9M in GOP outside spending is projected. Beltran carries $2.02M in debt, nearly all of it loans to himself.
Sources: Federal Election Commission · docquery.fec.gov · fec.gov · Punchbowl News
Agriculture Commissioner: cash on hand at launch
No single as-of date given; each figure's label and the source dates say when.
Wilton Simpson $33M, REP, on hand
Joey Mendoza Atkins DEM
Minimal; no cash figure reported
Sources: Wikipedia · Florida Division of Elections
State Senate 14: the Republican side
No single as-of date given; each figure's label and the source dates say when.
GOP Senate committee $3M, raised for the March special
Josie Tomkow $2M, REP, cash on hand now
Brian Nathan DEM
Outspent about 10 to 1 in March; no cash figure reported
Nathan still won the March special by 405 votes.
Sources: Tampa Bay Times, Oct. 14 · Tampa Bay Times, March 27 · dos.elections.myflorida.com
Largest single flows on the money map
Florida Realtors to Vote Yes on Amendment 3
About $19.5M as of Oct. 9
No Going Back PAC against Kathy Castor (U.S. House 14)
$8.2M spent against Castor as of Oct. 22
Sources: Punchbowl News · Florida Politics
GOP state Senate committee to Josie Tomkow (State Senate 14)
$3M+ in the March special
Sources: Tampa Bay Times, Oct. 14 · Tampa Bay Times, March 27
- Republican
- Democrat
- Money for a side or measure
- Money against a candidate
- Other
Where coalitions split
Contests where groups that usually line up took different positions, as each lens page tallied them. The two columns use the same layout; their counts differ because the research found different splits.
Progressive lens Lens5 splits
Governor: the ticket has labor and the big issue groups, but not the organizers
Endorse Jolly / Graham (9)
- Florida AFL-CIO
- Florida Education Association
- AFSCME Florida
- SEIU Florida
- Florida Planned Parenthood PAC
- Equality Florida Action PAC
- Sierra Club Florida
- Ruth's List (Graham)
- West Central Florida Labor Council
Held back or dissented (4)
- Democratic Progressive Caucus of Florida
- Florida Rising (no pick)
- Our Revolution Florida (no pick)
- Working Families Party (no pick)
Why the lens page calls it a split
Jolly is a former Republican congressman. The Democratic Progressive Caucus backed Dayna Marie Foster in the primary, criticizing party institutions for "anointing a former Republican Congressman." In 2025 the Florida Women's Freedom Coalition attacked his past anti-abortion record. The organizing groups that endorsed Nixon for Senate made no governor endorsement.
U.S. Senate: unanimous among progressive groups; the friction is with party leaders
Endorse Nixon (14)
- Florida AFL-CIO
- SEIU
- AFSCME
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund
- EMILYs List
- Equality Florida Action
- Sierra Club
- LCV Action Fund
- MoveOn
- Working Families Party
- Our Revolution
- Florida Rising
- Giffords PAC
- DSCC
Criticized her (2)
- FDP Chair Nikki Fried
- David Jolly
Why the lens page calls it a split
No progressive group criticized Nixon. Fried reportedly pressed her to distance herself from DSA, and Jolly said he rejects "any of the DSA platform" she embraces and disagrees with her on Israel. Both are Democratic Party figures, not progressive groups.
Amendment 1: the only amendment without a clear progressive No
Recommend No (6)
- West Central Florida Labor Council
- Miami-Dade & Palm Beach Democratic parties
- Florida LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus
- Voter Action Pinellas
- FEA (secondhand)
- LWV Florida (secondhand)
Neutral or supportive (2)
- Hillsborough County Democratic Party (no recommendation)
- David Jolly (supports, with guardrails)
Why the lens page calls it a split
Opponents say it would lock up roughly $16.4 billion over about 22 years that could go to schools, health care and housing, and writes budget policy into the Constitution. Your own county party chose not to recommend either way.
Commission District 1: Cohen gets labor and LGBTQ+ backing, but the environmental and organizing slates skip him
Endorse Cohen (4)
- West Central Florida Labor Council
- Equality Florida Action PAC
- Transport Workers Union
- Hillsborough County Democratic Party
Endorsed other Democrats, not him (2)
- Sierra Club Tampa Bay
- Florida Rising
Why the lens page calls it a split
Sierra Club and Florida Rising endorsed the Democrats in Districts 5 and 7 but made no pick in District 1. Neither group gave a reason. Cohen also has bipartisan backing from the sheriff, the firefighters and the builders association.
Agriculture Commissioner: the race the big slates skipped
Back Atkins (3)
- Hillsborough Democratic caucuses
- Florida Democratic Agricultural Caucus
- Pasco-Hernando DSA (aggregator)
No endorsement (7)
- Florida AFL-CIO
- Labor Council
- FEA
- Planned Parenthood
- Equality Florida
- Florida Rising
- Sierra Club
Why the lens page calls it a split
Every other statewide Democrat has the full labor, Planned Parenthood, Equality Florida and Sierra Club slate. Atkins has only Democratic caucuses, so there's very little progressive signal in this race.
Right-leaning lens Lens6 splits
Amendment 3: the party and the Realtors against the fiscal watchdog and the badge
Yes (6)
- Republican Party of Florida
- Hillsborough GOP
- Gov. Ron DeSantis
- Florida Realtors ($18M)
- National Association of Realtors ($2M)
- Rick Scott & Byron Donalds (reported)
No (6)
- Florida TaxWatch
- Florida State FOP
- Florida Professional Firefighters
- Florida Fire Chiefs
- Florida Sheriffs Association
- Lee County's GOP-led commission
Why the lens page calls it a split
Supporters frame it as tax relief that protects homeowners. Florida TaxWatch projects a $45.8 billion cut to local revenue over five years and wants a tax-reform commission to study it first; police, fire and sheriffs' groups worry about public-safety budgets. The Yes campaign has raised about $18 million, almost all from Realtors; the No side about $537,000.
Amendment 1: the governor and the party nominee against the state party
Yes (5)
- Republican Party of Florida
- Hillsborough GOP
- House Speaker Daniel Perez
- Rep. Lawrence McClure (sponsor)
- Florida TaxWatch (reported)
No (2)
- Gov. Ron DeSantis
- Byron Donalds
Why the lens page calls it a split
RPOF says it keeps Florida prepared for storms without raising taxes. DeSantis calls it "foolish" and "a solution in search of a problem," arguing the reserve is already full and surpluses should become tax cuts. Florida Politics ties the split to wider DeSantis–RPOF and DeSantis–House friction.
Commission District 1: Republican officeholders back the Democrat
Toledo (R) (5)
- Hillsborough GOP
- United Christians of Florida
- CFO Blaise Ingoglia
- Reps. Bilirakis & Steube
- Reps. Owen, Valdés, Alvarez
Cohen (D) (5)
- Sheriff Chad Chronister (R)
- State Attorney Suzy Lopez (R)
- Former Tax Collector Doug Belden (R)
- Tampa Bay Builders Association
- Suncoast PBA, Tampa PBA, Firefighters 2294
Why the lens page calls it a split
The clearest crossover on the ballot. Three Republican countywide officials, the builders association and the police and fire unions back the Democratic incumbent over the GOP nominee, a former state representative.
Referendum 1: the county party against its own delegation's bill
Yes (2)
- Rep. Michael Owen (sponsor)
- Florida House (86–26) and Senate (36–0)
No (3)
- Hillsborough GOP
- Stacy Hahn (as School Board member)
- Ken Gay (GOP-registered candidate)
Why the lens page calls it a split
Owen says parents should choose "the CEO of their kids' education." The county GOP slate card says No, and both Republican-aligned School Board voices oppose turning the job into a partisan election.
Referendum 2: four Republican commissioners for, one against
Yes (3)
- Hillsborough GOP
- Rep. Michael Owen
- Commissioners Hagan, Miller, Wostal, Boles
No (1)
- Commissioner Donna Cameron Cepeda (R)
Why the lens page calls it a split
Supporters say smaller districts bring commissioners closer to voters and act as real term limits. Cepeda opposes it alongside the board's Democrats; the county's Charter Review Board declined to recommend expansion.
Governor: united behind Donalds, with one anti-Trump-right exception
Back Donalds (9)
- Trump
- DeSantis (after primary)
- RPOF & Hillsborough GOP
- Florida Chamber
- Florida Realtors PAC
- AFP Action
- NRA-PVF
- SBA Pro-Life America
- Florida PBA
Against Donalds (1)
- Conservatives for Ethical Leadership (Lincoln Project–linked)
Why the lens page calls it a split
The right is consolidated behind Donalds. The only right-of-center opposition is an anti-Trump group running ads in counties he lost in the primary. DeSantis didn't endorse until after the primary, reflecting earlier friction.
What changed
- School Board 6 refresh: Perez and Gay money from the Hillsborough SOE G5 reports (through Oct. 16): Perez $59.4K raised plus $9.4K in-kind and $50.6K spent, Gay $37.6K raised and $50.5K spent (the note on his duplicated $14,601 self-contribution stays; county forms don't report cash on hand). The Tampa Bay Times' Oct. 4 reasoning for Perez and what it said about Gay replace "No detailed reasoning about Gay was available." Corrections: Gay is on the Hillsborough GOP slate card and got $5,000 from the party (Sept. 21); party affiliations are now attributed to WUSF, not stated as registration; Patriots4America is reworded as a paid event table and appearance, not an endorsement; Perez is the current board chair and says this is her final term. The Hillsborough LGBTQ+ Democratic Caucus is added to the progressive guide; party, union and Realtors money is listed as contributions, not endorsements. Applied by `data/drop-research/2026-10-24-school-board-6/apply.py` from the findings beside it; derived data rebuilt with `scripts/data/rebuild.mjs`.json`) was not bumped because only this contest was refreshed. Not reached: tampabay.com (paywall; the editorial was read via its Yahoo syndicated copy) and Blue Voter Guide (HTTP 403).
- v1.1 data drop (#12). Campaign finance from FEC pre-general reports (through Oct. 14) and 24/48-hour independent-expenditure reports (through Oct. 22), Florida Division of Elections records (through Oct. 9 or 16) and Hillsborough SOE G4/G5 reports; one new poll (ActiVote, U.S. Senate, ended Oct. 15) with the 45-day averages recomputed; Creative Loafing Tampa Bay's Oct. 22 guide added as an editorial column on every contest page. Applied by `data/drop-research/2026-10-23/apply.py` from the findings beside it; derived data rebuilt with `scripts/data/rebuild.mjs`. The downloadable PDF and JSON exports of the three updated reports are still the Oct. 22 snapshot; the pages and Markdown reports carry the update.
- Initial snapshot: research as of Oct. 22, 2026 (handoff rev 2).
How much the research covers
Counts from the contest index. Stronger shading means more, compared within each column. Hatched cells are zeros: nothing found in the research, not a small number.
| Contest | Polls | Money links | Network links | Progressive endorsements | Right-leaning endorsements | Sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senator | 17 | 1 | 2 | 33 (30 support, 3 oppose) | 13 (11 support, 2 oppose) | 52 |
| U.S. House, District 14 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 20 (15 support, 5 oppose) | 7 (6 support, 1 oppose) | 35 |
| Governor and Lt. Governor | 16 | 1 | none | 17 (14 support, 3 oppose) | 22 (18 support, 4 oppose) | 54 |
| Attorney General | 8 | none | 6 | 17 (13 support, 4 oppose) | 10 (10 support, 0 oppose) | 30 |
| Chief Financial Officer | 5 | none | 3 | 10 (10 support, 0 oppose) | 10 (9 support, 1 oppose) | 23 |
| Commissioner of Agriculture | 1 | none | none | 3 (3 support, 0 oppose) | 7 (7 support, 0 oppose) | 13 |
| State Senate, District 14 | none | 1 | 2 | 13 (12 support, 1 oppose) | 4 (4 support, 0 oppose) | 27 |
| State House, District 64 | none | none | 5 | 12 (12 support, 0 oppose) | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 19 |
| County Commission, District 1 | none | none | 4 | 5 (4 support, 1 oppose) | 8 (8 support, 0 oppose) | 11 |
| County Commission, District 5 | none | none | 1 | 9 (9 support, 0 oppose) | 4 (4 support, 0 oppose) | 14 |
| County Commission, District 7 | 1 | none | 2 | 8 (8 support, 0 oppose) | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 10 |
| School Board, District 6 | none | none | 2 | 9 (9 support, 0 oppose) | 2 (2 support, 0 oppose) | 18 |
| Retain Carlos G. Muñiz | none | none | 2 | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 2 (2 support, 0 oppose) | 6 |
| Retain Drew Atkinson | none | none | none | none | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 2 |
| Retain Morris Silberman | none | none | none | none | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 2 |
| Retain Daniel H. Sleet | none | none | none | none | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 2 |
| Retain Andrea Teves Smith | none | none | none | none | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 2 |
| Amendment 1 | 1 | none | 4 | 7 (7 support, 0 oppose) | 6 (6 support, 0 oppose) | 64 |
| Amendment 2 | 1 | none | 4 | 6 (6 support, 0 oppose) | 5 (5 support, 0 oppose) | 58 |
| Amendment 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 22 (22 support, 0 oppose) | 12 (12 support, 0 oppose) | 121 |
| Referendum 1 | none | none | 3 | 4 (4 support, 0 oppose) | 2 (2 support, 0 oppose) | 8 |
| Referendum 2 | none | none | 2 | 2 (2 support, 0 oppose) | 5 (5 support, 0 oppose) | 7 |
| Referendum 3 | none | none | 3 | 3 (3 support, 0 oppose) | 1 (1 support, 0 oppose) | 7 |